Skip to main content
Forecast and analysis from the brightest new minds
Monthly Archives: November 2018

Paris, Buenos Aires, and START

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump shook hands briefly at the centennial World War I commemoration in Paris on November 12, 2018. They had a short discussion about Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea (“Putin says had…”). Though the leaders planned a meeting, they ultimately postponed the meeting until the Buenos Aries G20 summit on the weekend of November 30 (Jackson). Trump said he wants to discuss Russian collaboration in Syria and denuclearizing North Korea. Putin wants to discuss the recent U.S. pull out from 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and “the future of the 2011 New START arms-reduction agreement” (Jackson, “Putin: Arms control…”).

New START “stipulates that seven years after its entry into effect, each party should have no more than a total of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and strategic bombers… no more than 1,550 warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs and strategic bombers, and a total of 800 deployed and non-deployed missile launchers” (“Putin plans to…”). The agreement stays in effect until February 5, 2021 and cannot be extended for more than five years beyond that deadline.

In the case that Trump is reelected to U.S. presidency, it is unlikely that he will extend New START. Trump has expressed discontent with the agreement calling it “a one-sided deal” and a “bad deal.” If New START meets its demise, U.S. nuclear weapon development will likely increase with the “loss of inspection/verification provisions of New START.” New START’s end would also upsize competition in “programs such as Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent [Boeing vs Northrop] and LRSO [Lockheed Martin vs Raytheon]” (Mehta).

Trump and Putin talked briefly in Paris on the week f November 12, 2018. They plan to meet in Buenos Aires at the end of November. Source:


Jackson, David. 2018. “President Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin decide not to ‘interrupt’ WWI commemoration, will meet at G20.” November 11. USA Today.

Mehta, Aaron. 2018. “One nuclear treaty is dead. Is New START next?” October 23. DefenseNews.

“Putin: Arms control to top agenda for his meeting with Trump.” 2018. Washington Post.

“Putin says had good conversation with Trump in Paris: media.” 2018. France 24. November 12.

“Putin plans to discuss New START, INF Treaty with Trump.” 2018. TASS. November 15.